Don’t Stop Beal Leavin’ (2/4/21)
^I am hilarious.
Iso, Iso!
There are two great tragedies in life: one is Bradley Beal, and the other is the Washington Wizards.
Here’s an excerpt from a piece I wrote about a month ago:
“The Wizards are the most confusing bad team in the league in my eyes. First, their roster every year screams REBUILD, but they’ve consistently made juuust enough moves to keep up the facade of competitiveness. John Wall and Bradley Beal were a formidable duo, but the Wiz half-stepped their way into competitiveness with their only help being Trevor Ariza one year, then Dwight another, etc. They gave up on a young Kelly Oubre without a replacement, and now they’re hoping Russell Westbrook is the answer? Sure he has a proven win floor, but if all of this is an attempt to sufficiently appease Beal, I don’t think he’s falling for it. This team is going nowhere, so look to see absolutely everyone on the block. I don’t think it’s improbable to see Russ traded again, and Beal has yet to force the issue but has earned the right to ask out.”
Spot on if I do say so myself, except for the “facade of competitiveness” part. There is no longer that illusion. As of this writing, the Wiz have the worst record in the league and help is not imminent.
But they got 2 wins over the Brooklyn Nets! They also only have 3 other wins, and one of the Nets wins was caused by a miracle brain fart by Joe Harris. But they’re averaging the 3rd most points in the league! They’re also allowing opponents to average the most points in the league — a historically awful 122.4 points allowed. Imagine being on a team that drops 117 points every night only to lose every game by an average of 5.
Imagine being Bradley Beal. I don’t think he does any one thing at a singularly elite level, but the aggregate of his skills make him elite in my eyes. His shooting stroke is pure — if you had to study one form in the NBA I’d choose his. He’s probably at his best on off-ball actions, but put the ball in his hands and he’ll get a good look. He’s not the quickest or fastest, but he has a deceptively lethal handle. He won’t yam it on you, but his floaters are just as effective. He’s one of those score-first shooting guards that knows how to make the right passing reads. And don’t let the box scores fool you, he’s more than a capable defender that would show if he actually had a functional system behind him.
Current reports are that he doesn’t want to be traded, but I’ve heard that one before. If he ever wants to be mentioned in the NBA history books as more than a footnote, Brad needs to get out. With that in mind, I cooked up a few interesting scenarios using the current Vegas odds of trade destinations + 1 selfish fan one. For the most part I tried to be bold, but I also kept in mind what I personally would agree to if I were GM for these teams. Also, most of these trades involve restrictions on “recently signed” players so while they all work under the cap rules, they can’t be accomplished until certain date thresholds (for example, the latest any of their trade restrictions expire is March 1st). All images are courtesy of TradeNBA.com:
New Orleans Pelicans
With the Pels having the highest odds of acquiring Beal, we start off strong with a spicy 3-teamer:
The Pels are actually flush with assets. They have the picks, the young talent, and the expiring contracts to make any trade they want happen. Bradley Beal is a perfect fit alongside Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson and gives much needed shooting to the starting lineup. Payton is a marginal downgrade from Lonzo but that’s a fine price to pay for a player they probably weren’t too convinced to re-sign. They do lose their DGAF gunner in Alexander-Walker, but perhaps they can unlock the promise once seen in Kevin Knox. And as an added bonus, the dunk contests in practice between Zion and Dennis Smith Jr. would be hype.
For the Wiz, we see the Brodie experiment come to an abrupt end in favor of Lonzo Ball’s potential. Bledsoe still has a hefty contract, but they’re compensated enough in draft picks to stomach it. The rest of the additions are expiring contracts for matching purposes, but they could likely flip at least JJ to a contender for another asset.
For the Knicks, we see the Brodie experiment in its truest form: showtime at the Garden. High end free agent acquisitions have been hard to come by in this borough, so why not contractually obligate a star to play here through trade? This would be a move with the here and now in mind to make a run for the playoffs, for while Russ can still produce at a high (though inefficient) clip, his arrival spells a huge cut in development minutes for Rookie of the Year candidate Immanuel Quickley. Alexander-Walker seems like a good fit in the starting lineup, but perhaps he and Quickley can split some minutes at the 2 when Quickley isn’t running point for a resting Russ.
Admittedly there are big game-fit issues with the Russ addition. Julius Randle has been doing all of the heavy lifting so far this season, and I’m not sure he’d be comfortable with the ball out of his hands to the extent that Russ demands. RJ is actually not turning into the ball stopper the pundits figured he’d be, but he’s a third starter who’s at his best with a high usage rate. A lot of molding will need to be done by Coach Thibs, but he’s seen something like this before. An uber athletic point, a versatile 3, a post 4 with range, and a defensive 5 is essentially what the blueprint was in his Chicago days, so all he has to do is tweak what he finds in his archives.
Here’s the post-trade lineups for the Pels and Knicks respectively:
Denver Nuggets
Honestly, if I’m Denver I don’t do this trade. The Nuggets are in a great spot of having young prospects while being competitive. Their core consists of Jamal Murray (23 years old), Nikola Jokić (25), Michael Porter Jr. (22), and Gary Harris (26); by the way this was enough to make the Conference Finals last year. If they let this core develop, the championship window could conceivably be a decade long — more than enough to outlast the window of current contenders like the Lakers. Adding Beal in a win-now move seems risky given they’d be exhausting assets to compete in a top-heavy year. But to play devil’s advocate for the sake of this exercise, future trajectory is far from guaranteed in the NBA and there is a trend of impatience that could infect the Nuggets, so let’s entertain this proposal.
A lot of talent leaving Denver, but Beal is a guaranteed star. If the Wiz are smart they could absolutely be this greedy in negotiations, leveraging the championship hump against the Nuggets keeping the future in mind. Losing a potential elite player in Porter Jr. stings as well as fan favorite Bol Bol, but the Nuggets don’t want a repeat of last postseason. They’ve obviously proven to be more than a dangerous playoff team, but they won’t get past the Lakers with their roster as presently constructed. Adding Beal is the only shot they have of taking the West, perhaps even being favored with their superstar trio to the Lakers’ and Clippers’ duos. Beal and Murray are liable to drop 50 on any given night, and the Joker’s elite passing will only amplify the effect off-ball Beal has on the offense. Truly terrifying match-up.
Golden State Warriors
Yes, if Bradley Beal is a possibility, you give up James Wiseman in a heartbeat. Contrasting to the Nuggets’ situation, Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and next year’s Klay Thompson don’t have many years left in their prime and can’t wait on a promise that may never pay off. Adding Beal optimizes their window to a deep playoff run this year into true championship contenders next year when (not if) Klay comes back to form. Steph+Brad +Klay +Dray +literally any tall person. That lineup may not be as potent as it was with Kevin Durant, but we all know those teams were overkill so Brad would more than suffice.
Wizards fans might be throwing up at the possibility of keeping Wiggins on the squad for 3 years at that grotesque number, but it’s actually not the worst thing in the world. First of all, that Minnesota first rounder looks mighty tasty to ease the pain. Second, I doubt Russ stays in Washington long if Beal dips, so with Wiggins on the books the Wizards wouldn’t need to worry about hitting the cap floor when free agents don’t answer their calls. And the best part is that while huge contracts usually mean production, this particular one doesn’t translate to wins so they can still tank!
In terms of best trade packages, I feel if given all of these options the Wiz should prefer this one. A rebuild is clearly in order, and this gives them both a premium draft pick plus a potential franchise cornerstone at center. And with the talented Wiseman in the building, the Wiz could finally send underperforming Thomas Bryant away in the offseason to the highest bidder for even more goodies.
Dallas Mavericks
I have no idea why the Mavericks are up there in Vegas odds because they straight up don’t have the assets to get this done. This was the best I could do:
Short of a third team gifting the Mavericks a trade sweetener, the Wiz would have to be convinced enough in the potential of Finney-Smith and Brunson to accept this. Or Beal would have to hold out for the Mavs specifically (unlikely). Hardaway Jr. is a solid piece, but he hasn’t shown to be effective on a non-playoff team so he might not be a re-sign priority. Dwight Powell gives much needed defense, but he’s hardly a reason to trade away a superstar. Dallas doesn’t have the right to trade any of their first round picks until 2025 so even cleaning out the pick cupboard leaves the Mavs lacking. I’d love to see what Beal could do with Luka Dončić, but I’m not holding my breath for it.
Los Angeles Lakers
You know I had to do it. This took so long to formulate given all of the cap numbers and restrictions involved, but I eventually managed to make a 3-teamer work. Note this can’t be completed until at least March 1st because of Plumlee’s recent signee restriction, but otherwise it looks like it’s legal. Also, not shown are the Lakers trading away quite literally every pick they’re allowed to give to the Wizards.
As for the analysis, the Wiz admit to a rebuild while acquiring some young talent. Schroder might be a rental, but if Russ isn’t long for Washington he could inherit the point guard gig. Plumlee, Wright, and Kuzma actually try on defense so that would be a much needed improvement in that respect, plus they all have affordable long term contracts that allow the Wiz to maintain the cap floor.
The Pistons are in it to make the numbers work, but they actually come out very much ahead here (perhaps enough to send some picks the Wizards way to sweeten the deal). They get a championship-tested KCP back to Detroit, and two young prospects in Wagner and THT.
On the Lakers end, I don’t think the assets they have can beat out other offers so this would likely not come to fruition but let’s roll with it. Also, I really don’t think the Lakers need to do this to win the championship but it sure cements it. Looking at the new lineup brings tears to my eyes:
The bench isn’t bare either with Trez, Wes, and Kieff surviving the purge along with decent additions in Ish Smith and a return to LA for shooter Svi Mykhailiuk. Absolutely would be the prohibitive title favorites, and second place wouldn’t be particularly close.
Pick & Pop
Ok fine, I’ll go back to analysis because it’s apparently a pure shell game anyway. 5–7 so far on the season.
Pick: Memphis Grizzlies
This is the most interesting matchup of the night for me. Both teams were running hot until they each lost their most recent game. Houston has a lot more firepower, but Memphis has the clearer identity. The Rockets are actually the best defense in the league since the James Harden trade (lol), but the Grizz aren’t far behind. I think it will be a grind, but I predict Ja Morant to outduel John Wall just enough in a close one.
Pop: Golden State Warriors
Sorry, there are 0 good Pop candidates this round. Utah isn’t losing to Atlanta, the Lakers are finally home after a long road trip so they’ll be refreshed for this playoff rematch, and Portland has like 4 healthy players with Dame being added to the injury report. So I had to go with the coin-flip game and chose the Warriors to pop with the superior record. This will be high scoring and a must-watch fireworks show with Steph and Luka running point. The deciding factor could be James Wiseman’s injury which leaves either smaller or less agile defenders covering the Mav’s Unicorn.
Throwback Jams
In honor of Washington’s inability to build a good team, here’s the only turnaround the franchise has ever made:
