Intro and 2020–21 NBA Season Predictions (12/22/20)

8 min readDec 22, 2020

*Appearing on Medium for the near future until website is built*

Welcome to the start of a new NBA season and the first entry of Ball, Don’t Lie / The 420 High Post /My Worst Tristake / 2Trist2Furious / [NAME IN PROGRESS]. I have been “consigned” to finally make the NBA column I’ve been pitching for years; so I know you didn’t ask for it, but this exists now. The content will largely be dedicated to in-depth basketball topics, but I encourage even those with cursory bball knowledge to give me a chance to vent and convince you into a fan. I also plan to write about life stuff somewhere down the line if that possibility is appealing enough. At the very least, I do promise to be as thoughtful and intellectually responsible as possible.

First my disclosures. I have no motives for this other than using it as an outlet for my opinions on all things hoop-related. This is not my day job so my opinions are not (yet) influenced by anything monetary. My Laker fandom is only marginally more important than my NBA fandom so I will try to be as objective as possible. And so I don’t risk violating an NDA, go elsewhere for your Knicks related fixes.

I’m starting with a blog because I feel to dip my toe into this space I should do what I’m best at, namely, writing and editing. Let me know if you don’t care for reading words and would rather this be in podcast / YouTube / stream / dehydrated / vegan form. This will always be a work in progress, and I have the freedom to adjust as I go.

I decided to word vomit for my inaugural post, but don’t expect the rest to be as time-consuming to read (but thanks for giving me part of your day!). I tend to be more thorough than necessary, but my aim is to be concise enough for ~one or two toilet reads. My planned format for the rest of the year is semi-weekly postings on Sundays and Thursdays with regular features that will be explained best in the next couple of issues.

With the orientation out of the way, here are my 5 predictions for the 2020–21 NBA season:

The Utah Jazz will have the best record in the league

Meh, why not?

This year’s squad reminds me of a more talented version of the 2014 Hawks. That team won 60 games playing with continuity, a versatile defensive identity, and spark plug hot streaks. That aptly describes the 2020 Jazz to a tee. They’re returning all of their key pieces, as well as Derrick Favors who has familiarity with the system being away for only a season. Between rotations consisting of Mike Conley Jr, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neal, Favors, and Rudy Gobert, opponents will have few if any unaltered shots. Fitting the curse of being nice only after leaving the Lakers, Jordan Clarkson is as good a bench scorer as you’re going to find.

And I have yet to mention their superstar-in-the-making Donovan Mitchell who will ride the momentum of his outstanding bubble playoff performance. A lot of my predictions will rely on projections, and if the Dono comp to Dwyane Wade holds true, we’re looking at something special this year.

Teams with ascending stars and continuity have historically been candidates for the league’s top seed. Look no further than the Milwaukee Bucks of the last couple of years. The Houston Rockets pulled it off the year prior by leaning on the James Harden system. The Chicago Bulls from 2010–12 had similar ingredients.

I’m not predicting a championship, or even a conference finals appearance for that matter. But this Covid-affected year could have most top-end contenders sit their stars multiple games to sacrifice the regular season for playoff success, and that could lead to a surprise in the standings.

If you needed something nerdier to convince you, with sample size and variance being inversely proportional, this season’s having 10 less games means a weird top seed wouldn’t be out of the question. And honestly this season just seems ripe for something weird.

The San Francisco Warriors will miss the playoffs

This one is a lay-up.

The Oakland Warriors in its prime was the court’s most efficient, well-run business. CEO Steph Curry innovated the brand. CFO Draymond Green handled the details. Kevin Durant was the best temp intern in the history of the world.

But not only is KD long gone, Klay Thompson tragically went down for the season. To extend the business analogy, the Warriors lost their CMO/Head of PR that used to cover up all of its shortcomings. No Klay means you can lock onto Steph as the only shooting threat. No Klay means opposing wings will score with ease. No Klay means off-ball actions aren’t as respected and Draymond can’t exploit his passing IQ.

I have little to no confidence that the supporting cast can compensate. Kelly Oubre is a nice rental, but he has yet to prove he can play winning basketball for a playoff contender. Andrew freakin’ Wiggins. The bench is comprised of a bunch of rookies and second years with names I immediately forget after glancing away from the roster for a sec.

What about James Wiseman? I was higher on him than most in the pre-draft process, but he’d have to have an anomalous season for a rookie bigman to push this roster over the top. Let’s take a quick look at recent rookie seasons of bigs with comparable (*cough* higher) draft pedigree:

Zion Williamson — 22pts|6rbs|2ast, our game’s Messiah, missed playoffs
Deandre Ayton — 16|10|2, had Devin Booker, missed playoffs
Karl-Anthony Towns — 18|11|2, had freakin’ Wiggins so missed playoffs
Joel Embiid — 20|8|2, missed two years injured, then the playoffs
Anthony Davis — 14|8|1, didn’t have facial hair yet, missed playoffs

Of course the one issue to take with this analysis is that none of the aforementioned players had a Steph and Draymond as running mates, but I maintain Klay was the key to the entire operation. Steph’s THREE ball is neutralized, Dray’s ONE-man defensive show can’t lock up the entire court, and that will LEAD to an early summer.

Luka Dončić will win MVP

He is the Vegas favorite so this isn’t that bold, but the kid is undeniable. He’ll be top 3 in usage rate, average a rounding error triple-double, and the Mavs will make the playoffs on his back. MVP voting has never been an exact science; some years it’s “best player on the best team” (Dirk, D. Rose) other years it’s “oh he doesn’t have one yet? our bad’’ (Kobe, Harden). Perhaps this year it will be “we want the future right now.” I’ll most likely dive deeper into this topic towards the end of the season, but for now I think the easiest method is to show Luka is the candidate with the least going against him. Here’s a quick rundown of the competition in order of current betting odds:

Giannis Antetokounmpo — Voter fatigue is real. Short of shooting 37% from 3, he’s not winning again.
Stephen Curry — See “Warriors will miss the playoffs” above.
LeBron James — (Note: this segment I reluctantly write and is mostly devil’s advocate BS) He has my heart’s vote — for MVP among other respects — and in most definitions is every year’s Most Valuable Player. But I think he will have too many things for detractors to point to. No one on this list has a running mate as good as Anthony Davis. His team will be too deep. He saves his body for the playoffs. He will most likely be out-statted. You get it.
Anthony Davis — You’re not winning MVP if LeBron James is your teammate, their votes cannibalize each other.
James Harden — lol, he disqualified himself.
Kawhi Leonard — He’s the second best player on the planet, but his game isn’t an MVP game. The man wants W’s and rings.
Kevin Durant — He got his MVP and immediately dipped out of the media’s good graces. Even if he deserves it, I think there are enough petty voters that would drive the narrative elsewhere. And the chance Kyrie implodes the Nets’ season grows by the day.

With MVP being so narrative driven, Luka being the league’s clear future, and voters ignoring what’s best in favor of what’s new and shiny, we have ourselves a winner.

Los Angeles Lakers over Boston Celtics in 7

I know I know, I’m a homer, but you know if you had to gamble your life’s savings on a champion you would go with whatever team LeBron was on. As standard procedure with LeBron teams, he got his one dominant regular season out of the way so I’m predicting a 2–3 seed with a more rested body for the playoffs. This year’s LakeShow is deeper, and bringing in new blood keeps the championship motivation fresh. AD is unguardable. Bron is guardable at your own peril through his passing ability. The one weakness remains shooting, but there’s so much compensation coming from other areas that you can’t deny they’re in a tier of their own.

Now for the Celts. This is a gut call more than anything else, but I think they’re sick of always coming up short and will stomp through these playoffs. They lost Gordon Hayward, but they made the Conference Finals without him. They were 6 points away from making the Bubble Finals. Brad Stevens is fairly criticized, but he’s too bright a basketball mind to not figure it out. Jayson Tatum is a more efficient Tracy McGrady and will only get better after his 23rd (!) birthday. Kemba from the BX will realize he’s a good primary but an elite secondary. Jaylen Brown is a star, and if we cared about defense as much as offense, Marcus Smart would be looking at his 4th straight All-Star appearance. They signed a Tristan. And knowing benches shorten in the playoffs, I’ll take their top 7 players vs. any other 7 in the East.

Frank Ocean will perform at the 2021 NBA 2K All-Star Halftime Show

This is a year he can do it without leaving his own home so let’s not let dreams be dreams.

There you go, we’ll see how these hold up in June. I feel this was a decent primer; this post will likely be one of the more unique formats I do from here on out. You can expect special posts like these on special occasions, otherwise I’ll stick to my planned format.

I encourage criticism — constructive or otherwise — so send me a DM through my known channels with what I can improve at/anything you want to see me write about. Thanks for reading, enjoy the games and see y’all Thursday.